Biden or Trump? (That’s the wrong question)
In the run-up to the US presidential elections in November, America’s democratic institutions are being pressured like never before. Will they survive the test?
Golden Matonga in Phoenix
At the Maricopa County election office, video cameras operate 24/7, broadcasting live to a Facebook page that can be viewed by anyone in Arizona or the world. No one can enter the warehouses, which house voting machines and ballot papers, with a pen of any ink other than red. America’s democratic processes are under scrutiny – and attack – like never before, and electoral officials in Arizona are determined to head off any doubts about the credibility of the upcoming presidential election at the pass.
These new measures are a direct consequence of what happened in the aftermath of the last presidential election, in 2020. Donald Trump, the incumbent Republican, lost. Almost immediately, conspiracy theories – enthusiastically endorsed by the losing candidate himself – alleged that the vote had been stolen in favour of Joe Biden, a Democrat.
Trump initially refused to concede defeat, and his legal team filed numerous court challenges – all ultimately futile – in an attempt to overturn the result. The messy fallout led to a violent attack on the Capitol Building, home of the United States Congress, by a mob of angry Trump supporters, seeking to sabotage the certification of the election result. The incident has been described as one of the darkest chapters in America’s democracy (a bold claim given the country’s long history of slavery and discrimination on the basis of gender, race and wealth).
Now Trump and Biden are campaigning against each other again – and, again, the credibility of the election is under attack, with some analysts arguing that Trump is already laying the groundwork to discredit the result if he loses. “If everything’s honest, I’ll gladly accept the results,” said Trump last week. “If it’s not, you have to fight for the right of the country.”
In Arizona, a state twice the size of Malawi, the stakes are especially high. It is what American pundits call a “swing state”: its electorate could go either way.
In 2016, Arizonans voted for Trump; in 2020, they chose Biden. In 2024, it’s still too close to call: in an opinion poll released on Tuesday, Biden nudged ahead with 38.8% to Trump’s 38.1%. That is well within the margin of error.
Anxious America
Phoenix, the capital of Arizona, is America in microcosm. The city’s demographics are changing. But as it becomes more racially diverse, older voters become more restless over migration, while white working class voters worry that they are becoming an unsympathetic minority. These fears – over race, immigration, and a changing economy – were also the driving forces behind the 2020 post-election violence.
Linda, an African expat in Phoenix, thinks that immigration will be the defining issue of the election.
“The images coming from states like Texas [on the border with Mexico] will influence many people,” she said. “It will likely lead to a Trump vote. As a migrant, I like the Democrats for their openness on migration but sometimes they overdo it and that is a strategic mistake.”
With six months until the next election, and campaigning in full swing, the uncertainty unleashed by the attack on the Capitol continue to cast a long shadow.
“I have faith in our institutions, but they will be stress-tested over the next year, perhaps even the next four years. The presidency is incredibly powerful and someone who does not respect institutions can do a lot of damage,” David Axelrod, a senior adviser in Barack Obama’s administration, told The Continent. “However, people should know that those institutions are very strong. At the end of the day we saw them in 2020 and 2021 so I have some faith that we will endure, our democracy will endure.”
Not everyone is so sure, especially given the sheer polarity of American politics. It can seem, from the outside, as if there is very little middle ground between the two major parties, and the people they represent. So much so that actual facts do little to shift political discourse.
When Biden claims that he has managed the economy well, there is plenty of data to back him up – but while 75% of Democrats approve of how he has handled the economy, only 5% of Republicans agree, according to a Financial Times poll last year. In such a tense and emotional environment, and with so much attention on the conduct of the election itself, it is no wonder electoral officials are nervous.
“In 2020, we were sued in around 50 court cases. We won them all,” said Angelica Bland, the communications coordinator at the Maricopa County election office. In Arizona, they are working twice as hard to ensure that the result in 2024 can withstand similar challenges – but know that even this may not be enough.